The Blackberry 10 OS won’t launch until January but the effects of the new mobile operating system are already being witnessed. Goldman Sachs analysts recently shifted their attention towards RIM with a “buy” designation and other analysts have also seen the value that a new mobile competitor could bring to the market.
Canaccord Genuity analyst T. Michael Walkley has sided against Goldman Sachs, noting that RIM will likely see a nice revenue increase upon the release of Blackberry 10 but that ultimately those brisk sales will slow and the company will once again lose its momentum.
According to Walkley:
“Over the past month, RIM shares have markedly increased ahead of the January 30 launch of long-awaited high-tier BlackBerry 10 smartphones. While initial sales of higher-ASP BlackBerry 10 smartphones should improve RIM’s January and May quarter device sales and ASP mix, our checks and analysis of the global competitive landscape suggest a very low probability BlackBerry 10 sales can turn around RIM’s long-term business trends.”
Walkley and other analysts for the most part agree that RIM’s higher end business phones are finding it hard to compete in a market where sub-$200 smartphones have become commonplace and users are flocking to the uber-popular iPhone and Android operating systems.
“Our checks indicate high-ARPU consumers continue to switch from BlackBerry to sticky iPhone and Android ecosystems in droves, BYOD (bring your own device) trends continue to lower RIM’s higher-ARPU enterprise base, and sub-$200 3G Android smartphones in emerging markets threaten RIM’s global sales and subscriber base. While we believe BB10 is a dramatically improved user experience versus BB7 and RIM’s new hardware is more competitive with higher-end smartphones, our checks do not indicate the consumer pull, carrier push, or developer excitement necessary for BlackBerry 10 to reverse the challenging trends faced by RIM in order to return the company to sustained profitability.”
Even if RIM manages to create a sustainable OS that users enjoy, the company will still face an uphill battle. Much of RIMs sales over the last several years were in direct response to IT departments refusing to support iOS or Android devices, a position that has drastically changed over the last few years. In fact many IT departments are now requesting iOS and Android devices in place of the antiquated Blackberry OS.
Further, RIM has yet to prove that it can create a sleek consumer friendly device with a sustainable App market that will provide users with the mobile programs they have come to expect from their mobile OS provider.
[Image via geek.com]